Rolling Average For TLD Sunrises – Will This Trend Continue?

After several months and 33 completed TLD Sunrise Periods, there are 4,008 domain sunrise registrations, for an average of 115 domains per TLD Sunrise.   This is a slow start.  But what is the trend?  If these trends hold up, what does it mean?

 

Consider the Sunrise trend chart below:
 

Sunirse Trend

 

 

It is still early in the year, so as we add more data points, a different trend may emerge. But we can formulate some conclusions and see if they hold true in the coming months.

 

1. Revenue Shortfall Versus Forecasts
The strongest results was during the first batch of Sunrise periods that ended on January 25. But then the rolling average immediately drops for the next two batches of Donut TLDs. The trend curve then bottoms out at 104 per TLD before rising up to 115.
 
By any measure, the rolling average of 115 Sunrise domains per TLD falls far short of what many new Registries included in their revenue forecasts.
 
Registries may have relied on past Sunrise Periods to develop their revenue forecast. Consider these statistics from the past decade:

  • .xxx sunrise: 80,000 blocks (2011)
  • .co sunrise: 11,000 domains (2010)
  • .asia sunrise: 32,000 domains (2008)
  • .mobi sunrise: 15,000 domains (2006)
  • .eu sunrise: 140,000 domains (2006)
  • .biz IP claims: 80,000 (2001)

How will these low Sunrise volumes impact the viability of Registries? What adjustments should Registries make in reaction to these results?

 

2. Low Participation by Trademark Owners
Deloitte,the TMCH validation agent reports that it has over 26,000 trademark records and has sent over 17,000 alerts to trademark owners about actual registrations for the first 35 TLDs that have emerged from Sunrise. But, participation of trademark owners during Sunrise Periods appears to be low. Why is this? Is awareness among trademark owners still low?
 
Will recent reports of cybersquatting in new gTLDs compel trademark owners to be more proactive?
 
Or, have they decided to wait-and-see?

 

Summary
It will be interesting to see if these trends hold up. What do you think?
 

 
Appendix: How the Trend Chart was Created
 
The Trend chart above reflects the rolling average of domain names registered per Sunrise over 7 end dates of Sunrise Periods from January 25 through February 22. The data is normalized to take into account the multiple Sunrise Periods running in parallel.

 

The trend chart shows that the average number of domains for the first 7 Sunrises ending on January 25, 2014 was 174 per TLD. The average of domains for the next batch of 7 Sunrises ending on February 1 was 74 per TLD. Thus, the rolling average of domains per TLD on February 1 is 124 for the first batch of 14 sunrise periods.

 

We then continue this logic for the next 5 Sunrise end dates. We have omitted the two IDN’s  (.みんな and .شبكة) and the restricted .ruhr regional TLD, which would have skewed the numbers lower. See the table below for the chart data. (thanks to onlinedomain.com for the raw data).
 
Chart Data is as follows:

 

Ending Totals
Sunrise Domains
tlds in parallel
ave/tld
rolling daily ave
1/25/2014
1215
7
174
174
2/1/2014
519
7
74
124
2/7/2014
139
2
70
106
2/8/2014
842
7
120
109
2/9/2014
168
2
84
104
2/15/2015
425
4
106
105
2/22/2014
700
4
175
115
Total
4008
33
115